ShareScope Survey Results 2009
Monday 7th December
| Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will offer the BEST returns?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Emerging |
611 |
63.2% |
| US |
190 |
19.6% |
| Japan |
143 |
14.8% |
| Europe |
115 |
11.9% |
| None |
69 |
7.1% |
| UK |
68 |
7.0% |
|
| Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will suffer NEGATIVE returns?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
436 |
45.9% |
| None |
274 |
28.9% |
| US |
237 |
25.0% |
| Japan |
187 |
19.7% |
| Europe |
165 |
17.4% |
| Emerging |
71 |
7.5% |
|
| Retail consumer spending this Christmas will be:
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Online up / high street down |
539 |
56.6% |
| Both Up |
298 |
31.3% |
| Both Down |
95 |
10.0% |
| Online down / high street up |
20 |
2.1% |
|
Monday 16th November
|
The markets have continued to confound many people. In our 7th September survey, 27% of you predicted no significant short-term falls whereas 40% of you forecast the FTSE 100 heading back down to 4500. Much of the rise in stock markets has been put down to the effects of quantitative easing (QE) but we'd like to know whether or not you think QE will have helped speed up Britain's economic recovery?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
385 |
33.1% |
| No |
263 |
22.6% |
| Hard to tell yet |
414 |
35.5% |
| Don't Know |
103 |
8.8% |
|
Monday 2nd November
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th & 5th November? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
47 |
3.9% |
| Down |
9 |
0.7% |
| Unchanged |
1134 |
93.7% |
| Don't Know |
20 |
1.7% |
|
Monday 12th October
|
Despite a fair amount of negative economic news recently, equity markets just don't seem to want to go down. When, if at all, are you expecting a significant correction to the rally (10% or more)? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| A correction is imminent |
265 |
21.5% |
| Within 3 months |
482 |
39.1% |
| Within 6 months |
182 |
14.8% |
| Within a year |
59 |
4.8% |
| We won't see a significant correction |
173 |
14.0% |
| Don't know |
72 |
5.8% |
|
Monday 7th September
| Despite the FTSE continuing to surge towards the 5,000 mark in recent weeks, many commentators still believe there will be a significant pull back over the next month or two. What level do you think the FTSE 100 will fall back to in September/October? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| No significant fall |
209 |
28.6% |
| 4500 |
296 |
40.6% |
| 4000 |
142 |
19.5% |
| 3800 |
37 |
5.1% |
| 3500 |
13 |
1.8% |
| Below 3500 |
10 |
1.4% |
| Don't Know |
22 |
3.0% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th September? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
26 |
3.6% |
| Down |
6 |
0.8% |
| Unchanged |
683 |
93.8% |
| Don't Know |
13 |
1.8% |
|
Monday 27th July
| Many investors are holding a high proportion of cash in the belief that the markets will retest the lows of March this year. For such investors, the recent 10-day rally has proven somewhat frustrating. Roughly what proportion of your investment capital is currently held in cash? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| 0% |
40 |
6.0% |
| 1 - 25% |
250 |
37.8% |
| 26 - 50% |
160 |
24.2% |
| 51 - 75% |
111 |
16.8% |
| 76 - 99% |
81 |
12.2% |
| 100% |
20 |
3.0% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 5th & 6th August? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
28 |
4.2% |
| Down |
2 |
0.3% |
| Unchanged |
623 |
93.4% |
| Don't Know |
14 |
2.1% |
|
Monday 13th July
In February, we asked you which asset classes you thought would offer the best returns over 2009. Nearly six months on, let's see if your views have changed.
| Which of the following asset classes do you think will offer the BEST returns over 2009? |
July 2009 Result: |
| Equities |
47.6% |
| Commodities |
26.5% |
| Bonds |
15.1% |
| Cash |
8.2% |
| Property |
2.6% |
|
February 2009 Result: |
| Equities |
43.2% |
| Bonds |
25.8% |
| Commodities |
20.0% |
| Cash |
9.8% |
| Property |
1.2% |
|
Monday 8th June
In a recent survey conducted by the FT, it was found that 11 out of the 20 economists questioned believed the economy had "stopped contracting in June and was likely to start growing in coming months" (FT.com, 08/06/09).
Leading this sentiment, Alan Clarke of BNP Paribas claimed "the outlook for gross domestic product over the remainder of the year has improved dramatically...the recession is over."
To what extent do you agree with this statement? |
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Strongly agree - the recession is over and a full recovery is imminent |
|
22 |
1.9% |
| Somewhat agree - whilst the economy is showing signs of recovery, it is premature to claim the recession is over |
|
414 |
36.8% |
| Neither agree nor disagree |
|
110 |
9.8% |
| Somewhat disagree - the economy has shown little or no improvement. Talk of a recovery is not only premature, but a little wide of the mark |
|
421 |
37.4% |
| Strongly disagree - the economy is still contracting and the medium to long-term outlook remains bleak. |
|
159 |
14.1% |
|
Monday 18th May
In January, we asked you which sectors you were most bullish and bearish about for 2009. As we move towards the half-way mark, let's see if your views have changed.
| Which of the following sectors are you most BULLISH about for 2009? |
May 2009 Result: |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| Oil & Gas Producers |
38.5% |
| Mining |
33.8% |
| Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution |
28.6% |
| Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology |
27.3% |
| Gas, Water & Multiutilities |
19.1% |
|
January 2009 Result: |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| Oil & Gas Producers |
33.2% |
| Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology |
32.6% |
| Gas, Water & Multiutilities |
29.9% |
| Mining |
25.0% |
| Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution |
22.8% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you most BEARISH about for 2009? |
May 2009 Result: |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| Travel & Leisure |
27.7% |
| Real Estate |
27.5% |
| General Retailers |
27.3% |
| Automobiles & Parts |
25.9% |
| Banks |
23.3% |
|
January 2009 Result: |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| General Retailers |
39.5% |
| Banks |
39.3% |
| Travel & Leisure |
30.4% |
| Automobiles & Parts |
30.3% |
| Real Estate |
29.9% |
|
Tuesday 5th May
|
Having hit new 6 year lows in March, the FTSE has seen a resurgence in recent weeks. For months, many commentators have been warning of a final leg to the bear market, although recently some, like Anthony Bolton, have pronounced that we are in a new bull market. Do you think the bear market has bottomed? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
361 |
36.8% |
| No |
433 |
44.2% |
| Don't Know |
186 |
19.0% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 6th & 7th May? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
37 |
3.8% |
| Down |
5 |
0.5% |
| Unchanged |
918 |
93.8% |
| Don't Know |
19 |
1.9% |
|
Monday 6th April
|
Do you invest in foreign shares? |
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Yes |
|
310 |
41.9% |
| No |
|
429 |
58.1% |
|
|
Have recent market conditions tempted you to look overseas for trading and investing opportunities? |
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Yes |
|
304 |
41.5% |
| No |
|
429 |
58.5% |
|
|
If yes, which of the following instruments have you used?
|
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Direct Equities |
|
219 |
72.0% |
| Investment trusts |
|
150 |
49.3% |
| Index tracking ETFs |
|
142 |
46.7% |
| Unit trusts & OEICs |
|
122 |
40.1% |
| CDIs |
|
19 |
6.3% |
|
|
Which of the following overseas markets have you invested in? |
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| USA |
|
239 |
78.6% |
| China |
|
128 |
42.1% |
| Asia Pacific (exc. Japan) |
|
120 |
39.5% |
| Brazil |
|
115 |
37.8% |
| Western Europe |
|
103 |
33.9% |
| India |
|
103 |
33.9% |
| Japan |
|
102 |
33.6% |
| Russia |
|
72 |
23.7% |
| Eastern Europe |
|
68 |
22.4% |
| Australia |
|
64 |
21.1% |
| Hong Kong |
|
46 |
15.1% |
| Canada |
|
45 |
14.8% |
| Africa (Emerging) |
|
42 |
13.8% |
| Singapore |
|
25 |
8.2% |
| South Africa |
|
24 |
7.9% |
| Argentina |
|
18 |
5.9% |
|
Monday 30th March
|
Do you think inflation is under control?
|
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Yes |
|
153 |
21.4% |
| No |
|
481 |
67.5% |
| Don't Know |
|
79 |
11.1% |
|
Monday 16th March
|
According to information passed on to Liberal Democrats deputy leader Vince Cable from an anonymous whistleblower, Barclays bank is alleged to be making around £1billion a year from financial schemes aimed at avoiding paying tax in the UK and abroad (Sunday Times, 15/03/2009).
Which of the following statements best describes your feelings about this:
|
| |
| Answer |
|
Count |
% |
| Tax evasion on this scale by large corporations is unethical. These companies have plundered the nation's wealth without repaying the necessary dues. The individual taxpayer is being fleeced. |
|
218 |
21.4% |
| You can't blame companies for wanting to maximise their profits. Any tax evasion that operates within the law is a problem of legislation not corporate ethics. |
|
574 |
56.5% |
| This is just another example of the "light touch" exercised by legislators and regulators on corporate governance over recent years. All parties are equally to blame. |
|
187 |
18.4% |
| Don't Know |
|
38 |
3.7% |
|
|
Should Barclays receive Government/taxpayer help in the form of asset insurance?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
346 |
33.9% |
| No |
481 |
47.0% |
| Don't Know |
195 |
19.1% |
|
Monday 2nd March
Former Royal Bank of Scotland Chief Executive Fred Goodwin has dominated the headlines in the past week, with the news that he will receive an annual pension of £650,000 for life - worth an estimated £16 million.
As Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman contests this settlement ("Sir Fred should not be counting on being £650,000 a year better off as a result of this, because it's not going to happen... it will not be accepted"), we ask you for your view on this matter.
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Lose it. Goodwin's pension is obscene. He should be forced to sacrifice all, or a considerable part of, the amount awarded. |
261 |
29.6% |
| Voluntarily give it up. Goodwin is legally entitled to his pension, but should relinquish part or all of the settlement for the poor performance of RBS under his tenure. |
338 |
38.3% |
| Keep it. Goodwin is being made a scapegoat; the pension was negotiated with his employer and was allegedly approved by the Government. |
259 |
29.3% |
| Don't Know |
25 |
2.8% |
|
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th & 5th March? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
2 |
0.2% |
| Down |
439 |
49.0% |
| Unchanged |
432 |
48.4% |
| Don't Know |
21 |
2.4% |
|
Monday 16th February
|
As this week sees the first anniversary of the nationalisation of Northern Rock, we revisit the question we asked you this time last year to see whether sentiment has changed. In hindsight, do you think the Government made the right decision to nationalise Northern Rock? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| It was the right decision - there was no viable alternative |
227 |
26.6% |
| It was the right decision - but the Government should have acted sooner |
280 |
32.8% |
| It was wrong decision - the Government should have agreed a private equity solution |
164 |
19.2% |
| It was the wrong decision - the Government should have let the bank fail |
131 |
15.3% |
| Don't Know |
52 |
6.1% |
|
|
Following the announcement of a £10bn loss in the newly-acquired HBOS, Lloyds Banking Group shares plummeted around 35% on Friday, leading to speculation that public ownership of the bank is a possibility. How likely is a further banking-led downturn in the global stock markets? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Very likely |
245 |
28.6% |
| Quite likely |
379 |
44.3% |
| Unlikely |
97 |
11.3% |
| A further downturn is likely but not led by any particular sector |
112 |
13.1% |
| Don't Know |
23 |
2.7% |
|
Monday 2nd February
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th & 5th February?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
7 |
0.8% |
| Down |
399 |
46.2% |
| Unchanged |
442 |
51.2% |
| Don't Know |
15 |
1.8% |
|
| Which of the following asset classes do you think will offer the BEST returns over 2009?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Equities |
365 |
43.2% |
| Commodities |
169 |
20.0% |
| Bonds |
218 |
25.8% |
| Property |
10 |
1.2% |
| Cash |
83 |
9.8% |
|
Monday 19th January
|
On Friday, the FSA lifted the temporary ban on the short-selling of UK financial stocks - a restriction which had been in place since September 2008. To what extent to you feel this measure helped to stabilise UK financial shares over this period? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Significantly - without this ban UK financial sector would have lost even more ground |
257 |
24.4% |
| Somewhat - the ban helped to slow declines, but only to a limited extent |
386 |
36.7% |
| None - the ban had no positive effect whatsoever |
355 |
33.8% |
| Don't Know |
54 |
5.1% |
|
Monday 5th January
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th & 8th January? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
2 |
0.3% |
| Down |
515 |
70.1% |
| Unchanged |
201 |
27.3% |
| Don't Know |
17 |
2.3% |
|
Which of the following sectors are you
most BULLISH about for 2009?
The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| Oil & Gas Producers |
33.2% |
| Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology |
32.6% |
| Gas, Water & Multiutilities |
29.9% |
| Mining |
25.0% |
| Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution |
22.8% |
|
Which of the following sectors are you
most BEARISH about for 2009?
The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| General Retailers |
39.5% |
| Banks |
39.3% |
| Travel & Leisure |
30.4% |
| Automobiles & Parts |
30.3% |
| Real Estate |
29.9% |
|
Click here to view all 2008 results.
Back to the top
