ShareScope Survey Results 2008

Monday 8th December

Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will offer the BEST returns?
 
Answer Count %
Emerging 241 28.6%
US 240 28.4%
None 154 18.2%
Japan 142 16.8%
UK 122 14.5%
Europe 102 12.1%

Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will suffer NEGATIVE returns?
 
Answer Count %
UK 400 47.6%
US 351 41.8%
Europe 302 36.0%
Emerging 221 26.3%
Japan 186 22.1%
None 144 17.1%

Retail consumer spending this Christmas will be:
 
Answer Count %
Online up / high street down 559 66.3%
Online down / high street up 24 1.4%
Both Up 153 6.0%
Both Down 884 26.3%

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Monday 24th November


Where do you think the FTSE 100 will bottom-out?
 
Answer Count %
It already has 112 10.8%
It won't fall much further 211 20.3%
Around 3500 372 35.8%
Around 3000 266 25.6%
Well below 3000 78 7.5%

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Monday 3rd November


With the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee set to meet on 5th & 6th November, many commentators are expecting another cut in the interest rate. What do you think the likely cut will be?
 
Answer Count %
0.25% 146 12.6%
0.5% 679 58.8%
0.75% 161 14.0%
1% 122 10.6%
More than 1% 14 1.2%
No change / increase 3 0.3%
Don't know 29 2.5%

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Monday 20th October


Most commentators agree we are in a recession. The latest employment rate is 5.7%. What do you think peak unemployment over the next 2 years will be:
 
Answer Count %
Below 6% 11 1.0%
6 - 8% 298 28.3%
8 - 10% 459 43.6%
10 - 12% 203 19.3%
12 - 14% 56 5.3%
Above 14% 26 2.5%

Peak unemployment in 1984 was 12% and in 1993 was 10.5% (source: Labour Force Survey and ONS estimate).

How many quarters do you think the recession will last?

 
Answer Count %
1 - 2 35 3.3%
3 - 4 310 29.3%
5 - 6 354 33.5%
7 - 8 199 18.8%
8 + 160 15.1%

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Monday 6th October


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 8th & 9th October?
 
Answer Count %
Up 24 2.2%
Down 826 76.9%
Unchanged 205 19.1%
Don't Know 19 1.8%

Do you think inflation is under control?
 
Answer Count %
Yes 225 22.0%
No 753 70.4%
Don't Know 91 8.5%

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Monday 22nd September


Since the US Government announced its plans to rescue the financial sector, global markets have shot up. How long do you think this will last?
 
Answer Count %
This is the start of a new bull market 30 2.9%
This is a temporary correction, the global economy will drag the stock market back down again to new lows 666 65.3%
Markets will consolidate for the short to medium term 273 26.8%
Don't Know 51 5.0%

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Tuesday 26th August


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 3rd & 4th September?
 
Answer Count %
Up 43 4.3%
Down 104 10.3%
Unchanged 844 83.7%
Don't Know 17 1.7%

Do you think inflation is under control?
 
Answer Count %
Yes 125 12.5%
No 827 82.8%
Don't Know 47 4.7%

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Monday 11th August


The dollar has strengthened recently, global economic woe is checking demand, geopolitical unrest in Georgia - a key energy transit route - has had little effect, and fears of meteorological disruption in the Gulf of Mexico has receded - where do you think the price of oil will be by the end of the year?
 
    Count %
Above $140   77 10.6%
$120 - $140   223 30.6%
$100 - $120   312 42.8%
Below $100   117 16.0%

With water companies in England and Wales due to submit spending and pricing plans to Ofwat for the 2010 - 2015 period, United Utilities and Thames Valley have indicated that above-inflation price rises may be required to make essential improvements to services (Source: BBC). In light of this, which of the following points of view do you most agree with?
 
    Count %
If significant investment is required, then that-s the price we must pay - even if this means above-inflation rises for the consumer.   197 27.0%
In the current economic climate, above-inflation rises are unacceptable. As such, increases should be kept at, or below the level of inflation. Costs should be shared by consumers and the industry.   240 32.9%
The cost of improving services is the responsibility of the industry and should be funded from the "bottom line" of water companies.   258 35.4%
Rising energy costs should be subsidised by the government   15 2.1%
Don't Know   19 2.6%

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Monday 28th July


Which, if any, of the following investment fund instruments do you use?
 
    Count %
Unit trusts & OIECs   156 36.4%
Investment Trusts   177 41.3%
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)   136 31.7%

What are the attractions of investment or unit trusts?
 
    Count %
I invest in trust funds to diversify; to gain exposure to foreign stock markets and/or alternative asset classes (e.g. property/commodities/bonds).   226 52.7%
I invest in UK-focused trust funds because I am not confident enough to choose individual equities.   17 4.0%
I invest in UK-focused trust funds because I don't have the time or inclination to pick individual stocks.   11 2.6%
I invest in ETFs in order to short particular markets.   55 12.8%

Despite regular comment about the failure of many unit trust fund managers to match or beat index returns, and the long-term effect on your portfolio of paying management fees, they remain popular investment choices. Excluding managed pensions, what is your approach?
 
    Count %
I would not invest in unit trusts.   183 50.1%
I invest in funds recommended by my financial advisor or SIPP provider; I don't really consider the past performance or management fees.   15 4.1%
I invest in funds but only where I believe that the historical performance of the fund manager justifies the management fees.   167 45.8%

Which overseas stock market would you be most interested to learn more about?
The 5 most popular answers were as follows:
Brazil 11.2%
India 8.4%
China 7.9%
US 7.7%
Japan 7.0%

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Monday 14th July


Do you think the French court was right to fine eBay 40m euros for allowing (or being aware of) online auctions of fake goods?
 
  Count %
Yes 728 65.8%
No 221 20.0%
Don't Know 157 14.2%

What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th July?
 
  Count %
Up 174 15.2%
Down 29 2.5%
Unchanged 911 79.5%
Don't Know 32 2.8%

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Monday 16th June


It's difficult to take a bullish view of the UK equity market at the moment, or indeed any equity markets. Even stocks that are bucking the bear trend may get dragged down by long term negative sentiment. Which of the following approaches best matches your own at present: (please tick all that apply)
 
    Count %
I'm content to ride out the bear market.   446 43.1%
I've exited the majority of my positions and put my money in cash, gold or bonds until the outlook improves.   306 29.6%
I am shorting the market.   291 28.1%
As a trader, I am taking advantage of the increased market volatility.   195 18.9%
I'm still seeking out small caps with growth prospects.   142 13.7%
I'm increasing my exposure to undervalued sectors such as banking, real estate and housebuilders   141 13.6%
I'm content to ride out the bear market but I have hedged my exposure using derivatives.   45 4.4%

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Monday 16th June


Anthony Bolton has recently said that he thinks Banks look a good contrarian investment. With attractive valuations and dividends, will you be buying into the sector?
 
  Count %
Yes 234 22.2%
Yes but not until the Autumn 307 29.2%
No 412 39.2%
Don't Know 99 9.4%


Do you think inflation is under control?
 
  Count %
Yes 71 6.8%
No 929 88.9%
Don't Know 45 4.3%

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Monday 2nd June


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th & 5th June?
 
  Count %
Up 35 4.3%
Down 48 5.8%
Unchanged 723 88.1%
Don't Know 15 1.8%


In December, we asked you which region(s) you thought would offer the best/negative returns for 2008. As we pass the half-way mark, let's see if your views have changed.

Over the next 6 months, which region or regions do you think will offer the BEST returns?

June 2008 Result:
Answer Count %
UK 48 5.8%
US 50 6.1%
Europe 101 12.3%
Japan 151 18.3%
Emerging 497 60.4%
None 95 11.5%

December 2007 Result:
Answer Count %
UK 153 15.4%
US 60 6.0%
Europe 117 11.7%
Japan 112 11.2%
Emerging 644 64.6%
None 136 13.7%

Over the next 6 months, which region or regions do you think will suffer NEGATIVE returns?

June 2008 Result:
Answer Count %
UK 429 52.1%
US 479 58.2%
Europe 229 27.8%
Japan 138 16.8%
Emerging 81 9.8%
None 49 6.0%

December 2007 Result:
Answer Count %
UK 421 42.6%
US 772 73.0%
Europe 336 34.0%
Japan 324 32.8%
Emerging 202 21.3%
None 63 6.4%

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Monday 19th May


Following the bungled opening of Terminal 5 at Heathrow, BA Chief Executive, Willie Walsh announced that he would not be accepting his annual bonus - considered to be around £700,000 - in acknowledgement of his personal failure in the fiasco. Bearing in mind that two senior executives resigned last week, was this a necessary gesture?
 
  Count %
Yes 768 85.0%
No 87 9.6%
Don't Know 49 5.4%

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Tuesday 5th May


With advertising agency WWP announcing that it would consider relocating outside of the UK if proposals to levy tax on companies' assets located abroad (for tax purposes) are implemented, which of the following viewpoints do you most agree with?
 
    Count %
The Government should abandon this proposal. The move could signal an exodus of firms leaving the UK in order to reduce tax contributions, leaving the UK in "very dangerous territory". (Engineering Employers' Federation chairman, Martin Temple)   658 71.1%
The Government should move forward with this proposal. "What the Treasury is suggesting doesn't seem particularly unfair, if its aim is to tax revenues from assets that could only have been developed in the UK but were then transferred overseas purely to save tax". (Robert Peston, BBC's business editor)   129 14.0%
Don't Know   138 14.9%

What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th & 8th May?
 
  Count %
Up 10 1.1%
Down 145 15.5%
Unchanged 763 81.8%
Don't Know 15 1.6%

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Monday 21st April


With news of London Brent Oil hitting a record high of $114.65 per barrel at lunchtime today (Monday 21st), what do you think the price per barrel will be in 3 months time?
 
  Count %
< $90 27 2.4%
$90 - $100 158 13.9%
$100 - $110 293 25.8%
$110 - $120 422 37.2%
> $120 235 20.7%

Do you think inflation is under control?
 
  Count %
Yes 148 13.0%
No 917 80.3%
Don't Know 77 6.7%

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Monday 7th April



What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th April?
 
  Count %
Up 15 2.1%
Down 429 60.6%
Unchanged 254 35.9%
Don't know 10 1.4%

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Monday 17th March


With the credit crunch and recessionary fears continuing to affect the world's stock markets, how low do you think the FTSE 100 will fall before bouncing back?
 
  Count %
5250 - 5500 249 28.9%
5000 - 5249 317 36.8%
4750 - 4999 177 20.6%
4500 - 4749 48 5.6%
Below 4500 70 8.1%

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Monday 3rd March


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 5th & 6th March?
 
  Count %
Up 11 1.1%
Down 176 17.7%
Unchanged 792 79.5%
Don't Know 17 1.7%

With the world's markets still very volatile, which of the following do you think will provide the highest returns in 2008?
 
  Count %
Oil 181 18.0%
Gold 385 38.4%
Equities - Developed Economies 65 6.5%
Equities - Emerging Economies 237 23.6%
Property 14 1.4%
Cash 121 12.1%

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Monday 18th February


With the Government set to decide how much compensation to pay shareholders as part of its plans to nationalise Northern Rock, what are your thoughts on the matter?
 
  Count %
The Government has a duty to compensate shareholders - at around or above the current share price of 90p   213 25.6%
The Government has a duty to compensate shareholders - at a lower level   66 8.0%
The Government owe shareholders nothing. Without public sector assistance, Northern Rock would have fallen into administration - leaving shareholders empty handed.   507 61.0%
Don't Know   45 5.4%

After months of deliberation, has the Government made the right decision to nationalise Northern Rock?
 
    Count %
It's the right decision - there was no viable alternative   128 15.5%
It's the right decision - but the Government should have acted sooner   245 29.7%
It's the wrong decision - the Government should have agreed a private equity solution   378 45.8%
Don't Know   74 9.0%

Do you think inflation is under control?
 
  Count %
Yes 146 17.7%
No 622 75.3%
Don't Know 58 7.0%

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Monday 4th February


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 6th & 7th February?
 
Count %
Up 5 0.9%
Down 383 68.8%
Unchanged 163 29.3%
Don't Know 6 1.0%

As Yahoo's board consider Microsoft's $44.6bn (£22.4bn) takeover proposal, the move raises several questions about competition in the online search and advertising industry. Which of the following statements do you most agree with?
    Count %
"Microsoft's hostile bid for Yahoo raises troubling questions...Microsoft has frequently sought to establish proprietary monopolies - and then leverage its dominance into new, adjacent markets"
- David Drummond, Google		   180 32.7%
"Today, the market is dominated by one player [Google]...the industry will be well served by having more than one strong player, offering more value and real choice to advertisers, publishers and consumers"
- Steve Ballmer, Microsoft		   246 44.7%
Neither / Don't know   124 22.6%

Let-s imagine the deal went ahead. Do you think Microsoft would be able to mount a serious challenge to Google-s dominance?
 
  Count %
Yes 252 45.8%
No 201 36.6%
Don't Know 97 17.6%

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Monday 21st January



Over the next 12 months, which of the following asset classes offer the BEST returns?
 
Answer Count %
Equities 223 22.4%
Commodities 332 33.3%
Bonds 100 10.1%
Properties 42 4.2%
Cash 299 30.0%

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Monday 7th January


What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th January?
 
Answer Count %
Up 7 0.9%
Down 289 38.8%
Unchanged 431 57.9%
Don't Know 17 2.3%

Click here to view all 2007 results.

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