| ShareScope Survey Results 2007 |
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BULLISH about for 2008? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| Mining |
55.2% |
| Oil & Gas |
53.9% |
| Utilities, Other |
32.8% |
| Banks |
25.9% |
| Tobacco |
24.6% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BEARISH about for 2008? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| General Retailers |
42.9% |
| Real Estate |
41.7% |
| Restaurants, Pubs and Breweries |
38.5% |
| Banks |
35.2% |
| Leisure & Hotels |
29.2% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BULLISH about for 2008? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| Mining |
55.2% |
| Oil & Gas |
53.9% |
| Utilities, Other |
32.8% |
| Banks |
25.9% |
| Tobacco |
24.6% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BEARISH about for 2008? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| |
| General Retailers |
42.9% |
| Real Estate |
41.7% |
| Restaurants, Pubs and Breweries |
38.5% |
| Banks |
35.2% |
| Leisure & Hotels |
29.2% |
|
|
The pound is currently trading at $2.07. In six months time it will be: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 2.20 |
68 |
6.4% |
| 2.10 - 2.20 |
395 |
36.9% |
| 2.00 - 2.10 |
363 |
33.9% |
| 1.90 - 2.00 |
222 |
20.7% |
| Less than 1.90 |
22 |
2.1% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
361 |
33.7% |
| No |
582 |
54.4% |
| Don't Know |
128 |
11.9% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th & 8th November? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
17 |
2.1% |
| Down |
88 |
10.8% |
| Unchanged |
696 |
85.5% |
| Don't Know |
13 |
1.6% |
|
Which FTSE 350 stocks, if any, do you see as likely takeover targets before the end of the year?
The 5 most popular answers were as follows: |
| |
| Name |
Count |
| Northern Rock |
42 |
| Sainsbury |
17 |
| Burren Energy |
16 |
| Kingfisher |
16 |
| Tullow Oil |
12 |
|
Two sectors not doing so well at present, for obvious reasons, are Banking and Real Estate. Nevertheless, there are some very cheap companies in these sectors: some of the international and more diversified banks look very cheap with tempting yields; whilst many of the big real estate companies are trading at huge discounts to NAV.
Are you buying into: |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
221 |
25.2% |
| No |
540 |
61.6% |
| Can't make my mind up |
116 |
13.2% |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
81 |
9.3% |
| No |
693 |
79.6% |
| Can't make my mind up |
97 |
11.1% |
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 3rd & 4th October? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
24 |
2.6% |
| Down |
152 |
16.6% |
| Unchanged |
720 |
78.8% |
| Don't Know |
18 |
2.0% |
|
| Monday 17th September |
TOP |
| How do you view the plight of Northern Rock? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| It is the unwitting victim of imprudent actions by other financial institutions, mainly the US sub-prime problems and the subsequent credit crunch. |
78 |
11.7% |
Its management has pursued a highly aggressive and risky strategy of building its sub-prime mortgage book despite
warnings of a slowdown in the housing markets. |
220 |
33.0% |
| A combination of the two |
327 |
49.2% |
| Neither |
21 |
3.2% |
| Don't Know |
19 |
2.9% |
|
| Is it your opinion/guess that there are more significant problems, like Northern Rock, in the UK Banking system? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More problems will emerge |
439 |
65.8% |
| There are but they won't come out |
120 |
18.0% |
| The other institutions are basically sound |
81 |
12.1% |
| Don't Know |
27 |
4.1% |
|
| The FTSE 100 has fallen around 10% since peaking on June 15 at 6732.4. Is your view that: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| We are now well and truly in a bear market |
143 |
14.9% |
| The current turmoil is temporary and markets will soon recover their poise before making up for lost ground |
322 |
33.6% |
| The market is likely to move sideways for the rest of the year |
493 |
51.5% |
|
| Do you regard the recent big falls on the markets and perceived uncertainty about outlook as |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| An opportunity to hunt for bargains |
788 |
84.5% |
| Time to sell |
144 |
15.5% |
|
| How do you view the outlook for UK interest rates |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| They have peaked at 5.75% |
343 |
35.7% |
| Another quarter point hike is likely at some point in the near future and that will be the peak |
439 |
45.6% |
| They have further to go and will reach 6.25% sometime next year |
180 |
18.7% |
|
Research conducted by Oxford Economics for the National Housing Federation suggests that the average cost of a house is set to jump by up to 40 per cent over the next five years; breaking the £300,000 barrier (Financial Times, 06/08/2007).
The gap between home prices and the average wage is increasing but not enough new homes are being built to satisfy demand. Which do you think is the most likely scenario? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Continued growth for the medium to long-term |
317 |
40.0% |
| Property price crash within 1 - 2 years |
280 |
35.3% |
| Property price crash in 3 - 5 years time |
102 |
12.9% |
| Don't know |
94 |
11.8% |
|
|
Today (Monday 23rd) saw the US dollar trade an all-time low of $1.3844 against the Euro.
Where do you think the dollar will stand in six months time? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 1.60 |
19 |
2.2% |
| 1.50 - 1.60 |
46 |
5.4% |
| 1.40 - 1.50 |
319 |
37.2% |
| 1.30 - 1.40 |
373 |
43.5% |
| Less than 1.30 |
100 |
11.7% |
|
|
At the same time, the pound hit a 26-year high of $2.0603 against the dollar.
Where do you think the dollar will stand in six months time? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 2.10 |
155 |
17.8% |
| 2.00 - 2.10 |
432 |
49.5% |
| 1.90 - 2.00 |
227 |
26.0% |
| 1.80 - 1.90 |
50 |
5.7% |
| Less than 1.80 |
9 |
1.0% |
|
|
Private equity bashing continues unabated with the news last week that the soon-to-be-merged AA and Saga paid no corporation tax between them last year. Their private equity owners offset interest payments against profits to achieve the zero rating. Whilst this is entirely legal, some are angry at the loss of tax revenue; others blame the system or point to tax revenue paid elsewhere in the process. In your view, what needs correcting? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Tax laws |
354 |
39.7% |
| Private equity rules |
218 |
24.4% |
| Ill-informed/vindictive journalism |
164 |
18.4% |
| Nothing |
156 |
17.5% |
|
|
Do you agree with the imminent ban on smoking in public areas? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
646 |
81.9% |
| No |
143 |
18.1% |
|
|
How will the ban affect how often you visit "enclosed public places" such as bars/restaurants? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More often |
321 |
40.8% |
| Less often |
39 |
5.0% |
| No effect |
412 |
52.3% |
| Don't know |
15 |
1.9% |
|
|
Assuming sentiment about the ban is already reflected in current share prices, what do you think the medium-term effect of the ban will be on the performance of restaurant and bar groups such as Enterprise Inns and Punch Taverns? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Positive |
216 |
27.7% |
| Negative |
167 |
21.5% |
| Neutral |
395 |
50.8% |
|
|
A report on the Financial Times website (Tuesday May 22nd), highlights that eleven per cent of people worldwide are now working into their seventies. In light of this research, at what age do you EXPECT to retire? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| < 40 |
10 |
1.2% |
| 40 - 44 |
11 |
1.3% |
| 45 - 49 |
25 |
2.9% |
| 50 - 54 |
54 |
6.2% |
| 55 - 59 |
106 |
12.2% |
| 60 - 64 |
133 |
15.4% |
| 65 - 69 |
114 |
13.1% |
| 70 + |
101 |
11.7% |
| Already retired |
299 |
34.5% |
| Rather not say |
13 |
1.5% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
252 |
29.7% |
| No |
513 |
60.5% |
| Don't Know |
83 |
9.8% |
|
|
With competition amongst private equity firms forcing takeover bids higher, some observers remark that the latest leveraged buyouts may struggle to generate the desired returns. Taking an overview, do you think: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
Private equity firms are paying too much and investors in such firms
or special situations funds should beware |
275 |
40.9% |
Private equity deals generally make companies more efficient and
can therefore still be very profitable |
195 |
29.0% |
Private equity is a blight on the stock market - removing some
excellent long-term investments |
170 |
25.3% |
| Other |
32 |
4.8% |
|
"Other" answers included:
- Highly leveraged buyouts are putting the long term stability of the economy at serious risk.
- Private equity is just another factor in the markets. They don't always get it right but they do maintain pressure to perform on public company boards.
- I have mixed feelings. The prospect of a buyout keeps managers awake but the involvement of current management (eg DFS or Boots) makes me suspicious or the big city investors seem too ready to sell too low (eg BHS or Pizza Express).
|
As a shareholder, how would you view the leveraged buyout of one of your holdings by a private equity firm? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| I would welcome the increase in share value usually created by a bid situation and invest my profits elsewhere |
458 |
51.2% |
| Private Irritated that another good long-term investment is removed from the stock market and, if possible, would resist |
436 |
48.8% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th and 10th May? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
906 |
87.5% |
| Down |
12 |
1.2% |
| Unchanged |
105 |
10.1% |
| Don't Know |
12 |
1.2% |
|
|
Overall, do you think the recent budget was good for investors? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
101 |
11.3% |
| No |
601 |
67.0% |
| Don't Know |
195 |
21.7% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th and 5th April? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
254 |
27.0% |
| Down |
11 |
1.2% |
| Unchanged |
641 |
68.3% |
| Don't Know |
33 |
3.5% |
|
|
The US dollar is currently trading at 1.96 to the pound. In six months time it will be? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 2.10 |
26 |
2.9% |
| 2.00 - 2.10 |
268 |
29.6% |
| 1.90 - 2.00 |
442 |
48.8% |
| 1.80 - 1.90 |
146 |
16.1% |
| Less than 1.80 |
23 |
2.6% |
|
| Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will offer the BEST returns? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
220 |
22.1% |
| US |
64 |
6.4% |
| Europe |
200 |
20.1% |
| Japan |
355 |
35.6% |
| Emerging |
387 |
38.9% |
| None |
42 |
4.2% |
|
| Over the next 12 months, which region or regions do you think will suffer NEGATIVE returns? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
148 |
15.0% |
| US |
487 |
49.5% |
| Europe |
113 |
11.5% |
| Japan |
108 |
11.0% |
| Emerging |
124 |
12.6% |
| None |
255 |
25.9% |
|
| Over the next 12 months, which of the following asset classes do you think will offer the BEST returns? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Equities |
450 |
45.0% |
| Commodities |
322 |
32.2% |
| Bonds |
45 |
4.5% |
| Property |
84 |
8.4% |
| Cash |
99 |
9.9% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th and 8th March? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
323 |
31.8% |
| Down |
8 |
0.8% |
| Unchanged |
654 |
64.5% |
| Don't Know |
29 |
2.9% |
|
| Have you heard of MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive)? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
176 |
16.7% |
| No |
877 |
83.3% |
|
| Do you understand MiFID? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Pretty much |
12 |
1.2% |
| As much as I think I need to |
44 |
4.3% |
| Only a little |
102 |
10.1% |
| Not at all |
856 |
84.4% |
|
| Will MiFID be good for investors and traders? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
24 |
2.4% |
| Neutral |
48 |
4.7% |
| No |
35 |
3.4% |
| Don't know/No opinion |
915 |
89.5% |
|
This time last year, we asked members to predict the closing price of Gold on 30th January 2007. 26.5% of respondents answered that Gold would close between £325 - £350 per ounce, with Gold currently standing around the £328 mark.
What do you think the price of Gold will be in 12 months time? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| < £250 |
1 |
0.1% |
| £250 - £300 |
38 |
4.2% |
| £300 - £325 |
93 |
10.3% |
| £325 - £350 |
190 |
21.0% |
| £350 - £375 |
231 |
25.6% |
| £375 - £400 |
185 |
20.5% |
| £400 + |
165 |
18.3% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th and 8th February? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
226 |
22.9% |
| Down |
6 |
0.6% |
| Unchanged |
741 |
74.9% |
| Don't Know |
16 |
1.6% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
300 |
30.5% |
| No |
581 |
59.1% |
| Don't Know |
102 |
10.4% |
|
| 2006 was another good year for stock market returns. UK Companies' overall profit growth was higher than their borrowing rate. Some experts conclude that companies should borrow more to invest in future profits. Do you think that quoted companies, as a whole, should borrow: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More |
111 |
12.5% |
| Less |
247 |
27.7% |
| No Change |
532 |
59.8% |
|
| Self-interested management and private equity takeovers are blamed for taking a short-term view of growth, ultimately weakening companies and UK Plc. Broadly speaking, should investors - particularly fund managers - be demanding a longer term view from management, and be resisting private equity takeovers?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
696 |
78.7% |
| No |
188 |
21.3% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 10th and 11th January? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
194 |
21.5% |
| Down |
5 |
0.5% |
| Unchanged |
675 |
74.7% |
| Don't Know |
30 |
3.3% |
|
Click here to view all 2006 results.
|
