ShareScope Survey Results 2006
Monday 18th December
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BULLISH about for 2007? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| Oil & Gas |
37.7% |
| Mining |
34.2% |
| Banks |
29.6% |
| Utilities, Other |
24.9% |
| Aerospace & Defence |
20.5% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BEARISH about for 2007? |
| The 5 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| General Retailers |
32.9% |
| Automobiles |
22.2% |
| Real Estate |
17.8% |
| Restaurants Pubs & Breweries |
14.9% |
| Media & Entertainment |
13.8% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 4th December
|
One of the anticipated benefits of a Nasdaq acquisition of the London Stock Exchange is cheaper dealing costs for the profession. But how do you expect trading costs for the private investor to be affected? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Increase |
108 |
14.4% |
| Decrease |
154 |
20.5% |
| Unchanged |
362 |
48.3% |
| Don't Know |
126 |
16.8% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 6th & 7th December? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
93 |
12.2% |
| Down |
2 |
0.3% |
| Unchanged |
651 |
85.7% |
| Don't Know |
14 |
1.8% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 6th November
Today's FT reports that FTSE Chief Executives now earn 98 times more than the typical UK employee. Average total earnings for a FTSE 100 Chief Executive is just short of £2.9m per annum, an increase of more than 40% on last year.
Which of the following best describes your view of these remuneration deals?
|
| Companies need to offer competitive packages to attract the best people |
37 |
4.7% |
| Generally, I approve but remuneration boards have been excessive |
119 |
15.0% |
| As long as it is performance linked, it is justified |
320 |
40.5% |
| Disproportionate pay scales are socially divisive and economically damagin |
166 |
21.0% |
| Shareholders are being ripped off |
149 |
18.8% |
|
With regards to your longer term investments, how do you view climate change issues?
|
| The climate must come before wealth. I would sacrifice a few percentage points of return to improve the environment |
289 |
37.2% |
| I believe that by embracing greener technology and operations, my investments will provide even greater returns in the medium to long term |
318 |
40.9% |
| I don't want my investments to sacrifice profit and dividends by investing in greener operations |
82 |
10.6% |
| I don't believe that climate change has anything to do with industry and should not affect policy |
88 |
11.3% |
Back to the top
Monday 23rd October
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 8th and 9th November? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
626 |
64.1% |
| Down |
12 |
1.2% |
| Unchanged |
307 |
31.5% |
| Don't Know |
31 |
3.2% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 25th September
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th and 5th October? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
165 |
25.4% |
| Down |
8 |
1.2% |
| Unchanged |
462 |
71.2% |
| Don't Know |
14 |
2.2% |
|
|
Hedge funds claim to offer higher returns albeit for a higher commission charge. The name "hedge" implies a market
neutral strategy. However, hedge fund Amaranth Advisors has lost $6bn due to betting the wrong way on gas prices.
A number of major investment and pension funds are thought to have lost tens or thousands of millions as a result.
|
|
Should fund managers invest in Hedge funds without clients' knowledge? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
48 |
7.4% |
| No |
528 |
81.5% |
| Don't Know |
72 |
11.1% |
|
|
Should hedge funds be more regulated? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
381 |
59.0% |
| No |
124 |
19.2% |
| Don't Know |
141 |
21.8% |
|
|
How do you feel about hedge funds as an asset class? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| I currently invest in hedge funds |
27 |
4.2% |
| Positive but no current exposure |
141 |
22.0% |
| Neutral |
301 |
46.9% |
| Negative |
173 |
26.9% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 11th September
|
The CBI is warning Labour that Trade Unions may try to exploit divisions in the party to gain stronger workers' rights.
Broadly speaking, what effect do you think the action of Unions has on share performance? |
| Union action ultimately reduces profit, for example by giving more power to employees and making it harder for firms to implement organizational change based on rational business decisions. |
357 |
47.2% |
Unions work for a healthier, better trained, better motivated workforce, and provide a structure for effective corporate communications, which ultimately improves performance. |
51 |
6.7% |
A combination of the two with, in balance, little effect on performance. |
349 |
46.1% |
Back to the top
Monday 28th August
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 6th and 7th September? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
85 |
13.5% |
| Down |
4 |
0.6% |
| Unchanged |
527 |
83.8% |
| Don't Know |
13 |
2.1% |
|
|
As it's the silly season, here's a bit of fun. With the start of the BBC's latest travelogue
"Equator", what novel ways to traverse the globe are left for program makers? |
|
Here's a selection of the answers we received:
|
- Travelling the world
alphabetically - i.e. from Albania to Zaire.
- By
Pogo stick.
-
Under water.
- In a
Viking Longboat.
-
Hands and knees.
- Find ways to travel with
minimum atmospheric pollution.
-
Running on the spot - just jogging up and down and letting the world turn under your feet.
-
Hang glider.
- By
catapult.
- Following major
Lay Lines around the world whilst claiming they follow
Fibonacci progressions.
Back to the top
Monday 14th August
Following Thursday's foiled airline bomb plot and subsequent heightened security measures, FT columnist David Owen suggests that high-speed rail travel "looks set to become an increasingly tempting alternative" to short-haul airline travel (11/08/2006, pg. 12).
To what extent do you agree with this statement?
|
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Strongly Agree |
42 |
5.9% |
| Agree |
230 |
32.3% |
| Neutral |
204 |
28.7% |
| Disagree |
203 |
28.5% |
| Strongly Disagree |
33 |
4.6% |
|
|
How has your attitude to airline travel changed? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| I will avoid airline travel at all costs |
14 |
1.9% |
| I will avoid airline travel whenever possible |
142 |
19.6% |
| I will travel as normal |
546 |
75.2% |
| Don't Know |
24 |
3.3% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 3rd July
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BULLISH about? |
| The 10 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| Oil & Gas |
53.2% |
| Mining |
36.1% |
| Banks |
25.7% |
| Utilities, Other |
24.4% |
| Electricity |
20.6% |
| Aerospace & Defence |
16.4% |
| Tobacco |
14.9% |
| Pharmaceuticals |
14.2% |
| Construction & Building Materials |
13.1% |
| Real Estate |
12.2% |
|
| Which of the following sectors are you
most BEARISH about? |
| The 10 most popular sectors were as follows: |
| General Retailers |
30.8% |
| Automobiles |
20.6% |
| Telecommunications Services |
17.3% |
| Media & Entertainment |
14.4% |
| Real Estate |
11.7% |
| Household Goods & Textiles |
10.9% |
| Software & Computer Services |
10.4% |
| Engineering & Machinery |
9.8% |
| Restaurants Pubs & Breweries |
9.5% |
| Information Technology Hardware |
9.1% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 3rd July
|
Do you support Alan Duncan, the Shadow Trade and Industry Secretary, and Shami Chakrabarti of the human rights group,
Liberty, in their protest against the extradition of the "Natwest Three"? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
373 |
45.1% |
| No |
154 |
18.6% |
| Don't Know |
300 |
36.3% |
|
|
Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
398 |
47.8% |
| No |
320 |
38.4% |
| Don't Know |
115 |
13.8% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 19th June
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 5th and 6th July? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
192 |
28.7% |
| Down |
9 |
1.3% |
| Unchanged |
453 |
67.6% |
| Don't Know |
16 |
2.4% |
|
Click here to visit the Bank of England website.
|
Caution prevailed last week as major indices confirmed the recent down trend by hitting new lows.
Your market sentiments have remained bearish since the downturn but have you joined the rush from equities to other
asset classes? Roughly what percentage of your stock positions, in terms of value, have you liquidated in favour of
less risky investments such as cash or bonds? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| None |
344 |
51.5% |
| 1 - 25% |
157 |
23.5% |
| 26 - 50% |
70 |
10.5% |
51 - 75% |
45 |
6.7% |
| 76 - 100% |
52 |
7.8% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 5th June
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th and 8th June? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
105 |
14.3% |
| Down |
7 |
1.0% |
| Unchanged |
599 |
81.6% |
| Don't Know |
23 |
3.1% |
|
81.6% of respondents correctly predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged at 4.5%.
Click here to view the the Bank of England website.
|
How will your investment/trading activities be affected by the Football World Cup? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
I am trading/investing in companies that I think
will benefit from the tournament
|
15 |
2.1% |
I will be less active whilst I enjoy a month of
televised football
|
45 |
6.1% |
The World cup will not affect my
investing/trading activity |
672 |
91.8% |
|
|
How will England do in the World Cup? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Fail to qualify from the Group stage |
22 |
3.0% |
| Second Round |
63 |
8.7% |
| Quarter Finals |
231 |
29.3% |
| Semi Finals |
148 |
20.4% |
| Runner Up |
31 |
4.3% |
| Winners |
66 |
9.1% |
| Don't care |
184 |
25.3% |
|
 |
Interestingly, 66 of you think that England will win the World Cup. Is this an omen? Find out on July 9th!
Back to the top
Monday 22nd May
|
After the recent action by animal rights activitists against GSK shareholders, what would be/was your response? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Sell shares immediately |
39 |
5.4% |
| Join a nominee account |
280 |
38.8% |
| Make a stand and ignore the threat |
402 |
55.8% |
|
|
The FTSE 100 closed at 5657 on Friday and has further tested support levels today (Monday 22nd May). Where do you think the index will finish the year? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Above 7000 |
6 |
0.8% |
| 6000 - 7000 |
290 |
38.4% |
| 5600 - 6000 |
270 |
35.7% |
| 5000 - 5600 |
131 |
17.4% |
| 4000 - 5000 |
51 |
6.8% |
| Below 4000 |
7 |
0.9% |
|
|
Do you think shares, bonds or property will deliver the highest returns over the next five years? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Shares |
601 |
81.5% |
| Bonds |
38 |
5.2% |
| Property |
98 |
13.3% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 8th May
|
When do you think Tony Blair should step down as PM? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Immediately |
237 |
27.2% |
| Within 6 months |
210 |
24.1% |
| Within a year |
170 |
19.5% |
| At the end of this term |
255 |
29.2% |
|
|
Stuart Rose of M&S has described private equity firms as "smash and grab merchants" although it has also been
reported that private equity led flotations perform well over the first 12 months.
Do you think Debenhams is a good investment? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
192 |
23.6% |
| No |
622 |
76.4% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 24th April
|
Currently the Euro is 1.44 to the pound. In six months time it will be: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 1.60 |
20 |
2.3% |
| 1.50 - 1.60 |
158 |
17.9% |
| 1.40 - 1.50 |
489 |
55.5% |
| 1.30 - 1.40 |
197 |
22.4% |
| Less than 1.30 |
17 |
1.9% |
|
|
Currently the US dollar stands at 1.78 to the pound. In six months time it will be: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| More than 1.90 |
35 |
4.0% |
| 1.80 - 1.90 |
290 |
32.8% |
| 1.70 - 1.80 |
343 |
38.8% |
| 1.60 - 1.70 |
189 |
21.3% |
| Less than 1.60 |
28 |
3.1% |
|
Back to the top
Monday 10th April
|
Which of the following statements best describes your attitude to ethical investing? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| I won't invest in any company that I have ethical concerns about |
78 |
9.6% |
| I won't invest in certain companies for ethical reasons |
156 |
19.1% |
| I occasionally avoid companies on ethical grounds |
287 |
35.2% |
| I sometimes avoid "unethical" companies due to peer pressure |
24 |
2.9% |
| I am concerned with profits not ethics |
270 |
33.2% |
|
|
Which of the following products or practices would you NOT invest in? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Child labour |
582 |
70.0% |
| Pornography |
486 |
58.4% |
| Environmental destruction/pollution |
376 |
45.2% |
| Tobacco |
258 |
31.0% |
| Animal testing |
214 |
25.7% |
| Gambling |
119 |
14.3% |
| Weapons manufacture/Defence |
85 |
10.2% |
| Alcoholic Beverages |
28 |
3.4% |
| Other |
20 |
2.4% |
|
The most popular response was child labour (70%), shortly followed by pornography, with 58.4% of the votes. "Other" answers included tyrannical regimes, fair trade products and "anything illegal".
Back to the top
Monday 27th March
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 5th and 6th April? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
44 |
4.9% |
| Down |
23 |
2.6% |
| Unchanged |
807 |
90.3% |
| Don't Know |
20 |
2.2% |
|
|
The majority of respondents (90.3%) believe that interest rates will remain unchanged when the Monetary Policy Committee meet next week.
Click here to view the Bank of England website.
|
Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
478 |
54.6% |
| No |
312 |
35.7% |
| Don't Know |
85 |
9.7% |
|
|
| How important are the following factors in your investment decision-making: |
| |
Important |
Marginal |
Unimportant |
|
| Oil price |
63.8% |
24.8% |
11.4% |
|
| Gold price |
23.9% |
39.9% |
36.2% |
|
| Relevant exchange rates |
22.5% |
48.7% |
28.8% |
|
| UK interest rates |
58.3% |
30.5% |
11.2% |
|
| UK inflation |
55.8% |
31.7% |
12.5% |
|
| Bond yields |
19.7% |
45.9% |
34.4% |
|
| US economic news |
58.7% |
29.7% |
11.6% |
|
| Far East economic news |
29.5% |
50.1% |
20.4% |
|
Responses suggest that the price of oil, UK interest rates, UK inflation and US economic news are the economic
factors studied most closely by ShareScope members.
Back to the top
Monday 13th March
| The success of internet companies such as Yahoo, Ebay, Google and Amazon has vindicated the dot com boom. |
68% of respondents disagreed with the premise; 32% agreed. We've included some of your comments below:
Agree:
"The dot com boom was merely a forward indicator of the future fundamental changes the internet technologies are bringing to the world market."
"Yes, we are now seeing increasing and sensible e-business - however this doesn't stop some e-madness e.g. Rightmove 1st day of trading!"
Disagree:
"Analysts et al misled themselves and others when they should have known better."
"Greed and fear caused the dot com boom."
"No vindication for assetless, profitless enterprises valued in £bns. At least Ebay and co are profitable and have an established position in their markets."
"These are the survivors - look at the losers, not just in the dot coms but those swept up in their wake."
| As an investor, which of the following statements do you have most sympathy with? |
38% believe that the big supermarket chains should be allowed to pursue plans for smaller, local stores to expand their market and increase profits.
62% think that independent retailers and local diversity must be protected from the rampant spread of the grocery multiples.
Back to the top
Monday 27th February
| How do you feel about any privatisation or demutualisation shares you may have bought? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Happy I've still got them |
165 |
16.1% |
| Happy I sold them |
433 |
42.1% |
| Unhappy that I've still got them |
24 |
2.3% |
| Unhappy I sold them |
73 |
7.1% |
| Never had any |
333 |
32.4% |
|
|
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy
Committee meet on the 8th and 9th March? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
42 |
4.0% |
| Down |
47 |
4.5% |
| Unchanged |
941 |
89.2% |
| Don't know |
24 |
2.3% |
|
|
Back to the top
Monday 13th February
On Friday 10th February, Brent Crude Oil closed at $59.67/barrel. One year ago it closed at $44.04/barrel, and two years ago at $30.06/barrel.
What do you think the price per barrel will be in 12 months time? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| < $50 |
42 |
4.4% |
| $50 - $75 |
623 |
65.1% |
| $75 - $100 |
269 |
28.1% |
| > $100 |
23 |
2.4% |
|
|
Back to the top
Monday 30th January
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 8th and 9th February? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
34 |
3.4% |
| Down |
52 |
5.3% |
| Unchanged |
883 |
89.6% |
| Don't Know |
17 |
1.7% |
|
|
The most popular answer was "Unchanged" with 89.6% of the votes.
The Bank of England will announce the results at midday on Thursday 9th February.
Click here to visit The Bank of England website.
On Friday 27th January, Gold closed at £314.65. One year ago it closed at £225.57, and two years ago at £224.36.
What do you think the price of Gold will be in 12 months time? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| < £200 |
0 |
0% |
| £200 - £225 |
10 |
1.1% |
| £225 - £250 |
20 |
2.1% |
| £250 - £275 |
25 |
2.7% |
| £275 - £300 |
125 |
13.4% |
| £300 - £325 |
171 |
18.3% |
| £325 - £350 |
248 |
26.5% |
| £350 + |
336 |
35.9% |
|
|
Back to the top
Monday 23rd January
| How significant do you think the pension deficit issue is for the medium to
long-term profitability of listed companies? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Very |
381 |
41.8% |
| Somewhat |
439 |
48.3% |
| Insignificant |
46 |
5.0% |
| Don't understand |
45 |
4.9% |
|
|
| Should the Government issue more long-term bonds to satisfy the demand? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
421 |
46.8% |
| No |
327 |
36.3% |
| Don't understand |
152 |
16.9% |
|
|
Back to the top
Monday 16th January
| The market is up 75% since the low of March 2003.
When do you think the current bull run will reverse? Or do you think it will consolidate?
Let's define a reverse as at least a 15% retracement from its peak. |
| Bear run: |
|
|
Consolidate: |
|
| |
| Next 3 months |
7.0% |
|
Next 3 months |
25.4% |
| 3 - 6 months |
8.0% |
|
3 - 6 months |
27.4% |
| 6 months - a year |
6.0% |
|
6 months - a year |
16.1% |
| 1 - 2 years |
2.6% |
|
1 - 2 years |
5.3% |
| More than 2 years |
0.3% |
|
More than 2 years |
1.9% |
|
Over 50% believe the market will consolidate in the next six months.
Back to the top
Monday 9th January
| Regardless of their merits, or otherwise, is a confirmed alcoholic a suitable leader for a political party? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes / It is irrelevant |
200 |
20.1% |
| No |
795 |
79.9% |
|
|
| Who do you think will win the Liberal Democrats leadership election? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Sir Menzies Campbell |
403 |
40.5% |
| Simon Hughes |
119 |
11.9% |
| Mark Oaten |
59 |
5.9% |
| Don't Care |
384 |
38.6% |
| Other |
31 |
3.1% |
|
|
40.5% of respondents believe Sir Menzies Campbell will be the next Liberal
Democrats leader. In second place was Simon Hughes with 11.9% of the votes.
With 4 votes (0.04%), Lembit Opik was the most popular answer in the "Other" category.
Back to the top
Market Sentiment Survey Results from w/c 3rd January
On 12th December, nearly half of you predicted that Emerging Markets would
provide the best returns over the next 12 months. Which Emerging Markets in particular do you think will
offer the best returns?
The 10 most popular answers were as follows: |
| India |
54.2% |
| China |
44.7% |
| Russia |
27.8% |
| Turkey |
25.5% |
| Brazil |
24.1% |
| South Africa |
17.7% |
| Poland |
17.4% |
| Czech Republic |
13.3% |
| Hungary |
10.3% |
| Egypt |
9.5% |
|
Click here to view all 2005 results.
Back to the top
