| ShareScope Survey Results |
Click here to view Market Sentiment Survey results.
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| Market Sentiment Survey Results |
TOP |
On a scale of 1-10, how bullish or bearish do you feel about the UK stockmarket over the next two weeks?
(1=Grizzly Bear, 10=Bull by the Horns) |
| Answer |
Response |
| 1 |
3.9% |
| 2 |
9.9% |
| 3 |
27.8% |
| 4 |
27.2% |
| 5 |
14.4% |
| 6 |
7.0% |
| 7 |
5.0% |
| 8 |
2.6% |
| 9 |
1.0% |
| 10 |
1.2% |
|
|
The last 5 Market Sentiment Survey results are listed below. Click here to view all results.
| Week commencing |
Mean
(average) |
Mode
(most popular) |
FTSE 100 |
| 20th October |
4.1 |
3 |
4136 |
| 6th October |
3.2 |
3 |
4893 |
| 22nd September |
3.6 |
3 |
5323 |
| 8th September |
3.8 |
4 |
5369 |
| 26th August |
4.0 |
4 |
5416 |
|
|
|
Most commentators agree we are in a recession. The latest employment rate is 5.7%. What do you think peak unemployment over the next 2 years will be: |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Below 6% |
11 |
1.0% |
| 6 - 8% |
298 |
28.3% |
| 8 - 10% |
459 |
43.6% |
| 10 - 12% |
203 |
19.3% |
| 12 - 14% |
56 |
5.3% |
| Above 14% |
26 |
2.5% |
|
|
Peak unemployment in 1984 was 12% and in 1993 was 10.5% (source: Labour Force Survey and ONS estimate).
How many quarters do you think the recession will last? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| 1 - 2 |
35 |
3.3% |
| 3 - 4 |
310 |
29.3% |
| 5 - 6 |
354 |
33.5% |
| 7 - 8 |
199 |
18.8% |
| 8 + |
160 |
15.1% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 8th & 9th October? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
24 |
2.2% |
| Down |
826 |
76.9% |
| Unchanged |
205 |
19.1% |
| Don't Know |
19 |
1.8% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
225 |
22.0% |
| No |
753 |
70.4% |
| Don't Know |
91 |
8.5% |
|
| Monday 22nd September |
TOP |
|
Since the US Government announced its plans to rescue the financial sector, global markets have shot up. How long do you think this will last? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| This is the start of a new bull market |
30 |
2.9% |
| This is a temporary correction, the global economy will drag the stock market back down again to new lows |
666 |
65.3% |
| Markets will consolidate for the short to medium term |
273 |
26.8% |
| Don't Know |
51 |
5.0% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 3rd & 4th September? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
43 |
4.3% |
| Down |
104 |
10.3% |
| Unchanged |
844 |
83.7% |
| Don't Know |
17 |
1.7% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
125 |
12.5% |
| No |
827 |
82.8% |
| Don't Know |
47 |
4.7% |
|
|
The dollar has strengthened recently, global economic woe is checking demand, geopolitical unrest in Georgia - a key energy transit route - has had little effect, and fears of meteorological disruption in the Gulf of Mexico has receded - where do you think the price of oil will be by the end of the year?
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| Above $140 |
|
77 |
10.6% |
| $120 - $140 |
|
223 |
30.6% |
| $100 - $120 |
|
312 |
42.8% |
| Below $100 |
|
117 |
16.0% |
|
With water companies in England and Wales due to submit spending and pricing plans to Ofwat for the 2010 – 2015 period, United Utilities and Thames Valley have indicated that above-inflation price rises may be required to make essential improvements to services (Source: BBC). In light of this, which of the following points of view do you most agree with? |
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| If significant investment is required, then that’s the price we must pay – even if this means above-inflation rises for the consumer. |
|
197 |
27.0% |
| In the current economic climate, above-inflation rises are unacceptable. As such, increases should be kept at, or below the level of inflation. Costs should be shared by consumers and the industry. |
|
240 |
32.9% |
| The cost of improving services is the responsibility of the industry and should be funded from the “bottom line” of water companies. |
|
258 |
35.4% |
| Rising energy costs should be subsidised by the government |
|
15 |
2.1% |
| Don't Know |
|
19 |
2.6% |
|
Which, if any, of the following investment fund instruments do you use?
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| Unit trusts & OIECs |
|
156 |
36.4% |
| Investment Trusts |
|
177 |
41.3% |
| Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) |
|
136 |
31.7% |
|
What are the attractions of investment or unit trusts?
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| I invest in trust funds to diversify; to gain exposure to foreign stock markets and/or alternative asset classes (e.g. property/commodities/bonds). |
|
226 |
52.7% |
| I invest in UK-focused trust funds because I am not confident enough to choose individual equities. |
|
17 |
4.0% |
| I invest in UK-focused trust funds because I don't have the time or inclination to pick individual stocks. |
|
11 |
2.6% |
| I invest in ETFs in order to short particular markets. |
|
55 |
12.8% |
|
Despite regular comment about the failure of many unit trust fund managers to match or beat index returns, and the long-term effect on your portfolio of paying management fees, they remain popular investment choices. Excluding managed pensions, what is your approach?
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| I would not invest in unit trusts. |
|
183 |
50.1% |
| I invest in funds recommended by my financial advisor or SIPP provider; I don't really consider the past performance or management fees. |
|
15 |
4.1% |
| I invest in funds but only where I believe that the historical performance of the fund manager justifies the management fees. |
|
167 |
45.8% |
| Which overseas stock market would you be most interested to learn more about? |
| The 5 most popular answers were as follows: |
| Brazil |
11.2% |
| India |
8.4% |
| China |
7.9% |
| US |
7.7% |
| Japan |
7.0% |
|
| Do you think the French court was right to fine eBay 40m euros for allowing (or being aware of) online auctions of fake goods?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
728 |
65.8% |
| No |
221 |
20.0% |
| Don't Know |
157 |
14.2% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th July? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Up |
174 |
15.2% |
| Down |
29 |
2.5% |
| Unchanged |
911 |
79.5% |
| Don't Know |
32 |
2.8% |
|
|
It’s difficult to take a bullish view of the UK equity market at the moment, or indeed any equity markets. Even stocks that are bucking the bear trend may get dragged down by long term negative sentiment. Which of the following approaches best matches your own at present: (please tick all that apply)
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| I’m content to ride out the bear market. |
|
446 |
43.1% |
| I’ve exited the majority of my positions and put my money in cash, gold or bonds until the outlook improves. |
|
306 |
29.6% |
| I am shorting the market. |
|
291 |
28.1% |
| As a trader, I am taking advantage of the increased market volatility. |
|
195 |
18.9% |
| I’m still seeking out small caps with growth prospects. |
|
142 |
13.7% |
| I’m increasing my exposure to undervalued sectors such as banking, real estate and housebuilders |
|
141 |
13.6% |
| I’m content to ride out the bear market but I have hedged my exposure using derivatives. |
|
45 |
4.4% |
| Anthony Bolton has recently said that he thinks Banks look a good contrarian investment. With attractive valuations and dividends, will you be buying into the sector?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
234 |
22.2% |
| Yes but not until the Autumn |
307 |
29.2% |
| No |
412 |
39.2% |
| Don't Know |
99 |
9.4% |
|
|
Do you think inflation is under control?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
71 |
6.8% |
| No |
929 |
88.9% |
| Don't Know |
45 |
4.3% |
|
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 4th & 5th June?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Up |
35 |
4.3% |
| Down |
48 |
5.8% |
| Unchanged |
723 |
88.1% |
| Don't Know |
15 |
1.8% |
|
In December, we asked you which region(s) you thought would offer the best/negative returns for 2008. As we pass the half-way mark, let's see if your views have changed.
| Over the next 6 months, which region or regions do you think will offer the BEST returns? |
June 2008 Result: |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
48 |
5.8% |
| US |
50 |
6.1% |
| Europe |
101 |
12.3% |
| Japan |
151 |
18.3% |
| Emerging |
497 |
60.4% |
| None |
95 |
11.5% |
|
December 2007 Result: |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
153 |
15.4% |
| US |
60 |
6.0% |
| Europe |
117 |
11.7% |
| Japan |
112 |
11.2% |
| Emerging |
644 |
64.6% |
| None |
136 |
13.7% |
|
| Over the next 6 months, which region or regions do you think will suffer NEGATIVE returns? |
June 2008 Result: |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
429 |
52.1% |
| US |
479 |
58.2% |
| Europe |
229 |
27.8% |
| Japan |
138 |
16.8% |
| Emerging |
81 |
9.8% |
| None |
49 |
6.0% |
|
December 2007 Result: |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| UK |
421 |
42.6% |
| US |
772 |
73.0% |
| Europe |
336 |
34.0% |
| Japan |
324 |
32.8% |
| Emerging |
202 |
21.3% |
| None |
63 |
6.4% |
|
| Following the bungled opening of Terminal 5 at Heathrow, BA Chief Executive, Willie Walsh announced that he would not be accepting his annual bonus – considered to be around £700,000 – in acknowledgement of his personal failure in the fiasco. Bearing in mind that two senior executives resigned last week, was this a necessary gesture?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
768 |
85.0% |
| No |
87 |
9.6% |
| Don't Know |
49 |
5.4% |
|
| With advertising agency WWP announcing that it would consider relocating outside of the UK if proposals to levy tax on companies’ assets located abroad (for tax purposes) are implemented, which of the following viewpoints do you most agree with?
|
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| The Government should abandon this proposal.
The move could signal an exodus of firms leaving the UK in order to reduce tax contributions, leaving the UK in “very dangerous territory”. (Engineering Employers' Federation chairman, Martin Temple) |
|
658 |
71.1% |
| The Government should move forward with this proposal.
"What the Treasury is suggesting doesn't seem particularly unfair, if its aim is to tax revenues from assets that could only have been developed in the UK but were then transferred overseas purely to save tax”. (Robert Peston, BBC's business editor) |
|
129 |
14.0% |
| Don't Know |
|
138 |
14.9% |
|
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 7th & 8th May?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Up |
10 |
1.1% |
| Down |
145 |
15.5% |
| Unchanged |
763 |
81.8% |
| Don't Know |
15 |
1.6% |
|
| With news of London Brent Oil hitting a record high of $114.65 per barrel at lunchtime today (Monday 21st), what do you think the price per barrel will be in 3 months time?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| < $90 |
27 |
2.4% |
| $90 - $100 |
158 |
13.9% |
| $100 - $110 |
293 |
25.8% |
| $110 - $120 |
422 |
37.2% |
| > $120 |
235 |
20.7% |
|
| Do you think inflation is under control?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
148 |
13.0% |
| No |
917 |
80.3% |
| Don't Know |
77 |
6.7% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th April?
|
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Up |
15 |
2.1% |
| Down |
429 |
60.6% |
| Unchanged |
254 |
35.9% |
| Don't know |
10 |
1.4% |
|
|
With the credit crunch and recessionary fears continuing to affect the world's stock markets, how low do you
think the FTSE 100 will fall before bouncing back? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| 5250 - 5500 |
249 |
28.9% |
| 5000 - 5249 |
317 |
36.8% |
| 4750 - 4999 |
177 |
20.6% |
| 4500 - 4749 |
48 |
5.6% |
| Below 4500 |
70 |
8.1% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 5th & 6th March? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Up |
11 |
1.1% |
| Down |
176 |
17.7% |
| Unchanged |
792 |
79.5% |
| Don't Know |
17 |
1.7% |
|
|
With the world's markets still very volatile, which of the following do you think will provide the highest returns in 2008? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Oil |
181 |
18.0% |
| Gold |
385 |
38.4% |
| Equities - Developed Economies |
65 |
6.5% |
| Equities - Emerging Economies |
237 |
23.6% |
| Property |
14 |
1.4% |
| Cash |
121 |
12.1% |
|
| With the Government set to decide how much compensation to pay shareholders as part of its plans to nationalise Northern Rock, what are your thoughts on the matter?
|
| |
|
|
Count |
% |
| The Government has a duty to compensate shareholders – at around or above the current share price of 90p |
|
213 |
25.6% |
| The Government has a duty to compensate shareholders – at a lower level |
|
66 |
8.0% |
| The Government owe shareholders nothing. Without public sector assistance, Northern Rock would have fallen into administration - leaving shareholders empty handed. |
|
507 |
61.0% |
| Don't Know |
|
45 |
5.4% |
|
|
After months of deliberation, has the Government made the right decision to nationalise Northern Rock? |
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
| It's the right decision - there was no viable alternative
| |
128 |
15.5% |
| It's the right decision - but the Government should have acted sooner |
|
245 |
29.7% |
| It's the wrong decision - the Government should have agreed a private equity solution |
|
378 |
45.8% |
| Don't Know |
|
74 |
9.0% |
|
|
Do you think inflation is under control? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
146 |
17.7% |
| No |
622 |
75.3% |
| Don't Know |
58 |
7.0% |
|
| What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 6th & 7th February?
|
| |
|
Count |
% |
| Up |
5 |
0.9% |
| Down |
383 |
68.8% |
| Unchanged |
163 |
29.3% |
| Don't Know |
6 |
1.0% |
|
|
As Yahoo's board consider Microsoft's $44.6bn (£22.4bn) takeover proposal, the move raises several questions about competition in the online search and advertising industry. Which of the following statements do you most agree with? |
| |
| |
|
Count |
% |
“Microsoft's hostile bid for Yahoo raises troubling questions… Microsoft has frequently sought to establish proprietary monopolies – and then leverage its dominance into new, adjacent markets”
- David Drummond, Google |
|
180 |
32.7% |
“Today, the market is dominated by one player [Google]…the industry will be well served by having more than one strong player, offering more value and real choice to advertisers, publishers and consumers”
- Steve Ballmer, Microsoft |
|
246 |
44.7% |
| Neither / Don't know |
|
124 |
22.6% |
|
|
Let's imagine the deal went ahead. Do you think Microsoft would be able to mount a serious challenge to Google’s dominance? |
| |
| |
Count |
% |
| Yes |
252 |
45.8% |
| No |
201 |
36.6% |
| Don't Know |
97 |
17.6% |
|
|
Over the next 12 months, which of the following asset classes offer the BEST returns? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Equities |
223 |
22.4% |
| Commodities |
332 |
33.3% |
| Bonds |
100 |
10.1% |
| Properties |
42 |
4.2% |
| Cash |
299 |
30.0% |
|
|
What will happen to interest rates when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meet on the 9th & 10th January? |
| |
| Answer |
Count |
% |
| Up |
7 |
0.9% |
| Down |
289 |
38.8% |
| Unchanged |
431 |
57.9% |
| Don't Know |
17 |
2.3% |
|
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Click here to view all 2007 results.
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